The Los Angeles Times reported today that Barack Obama is 12 points ahead of John McCain in the presidential race.
Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.
In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.
Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.
Anybody who thinks Obama can handle our economic problems has already checked his or her brain at the door. I'm sure they'll get their brains back when they realize that Obama's decision to ban oil development (can you say $10 gas?) at the same time he pours billions into developing an engine powered by dilithium crystals, on top of raising taxes of all kinds, has sent our country into an economic tailspin. The difference between Bush's economic problems and Obama's disastrous economy should be obvious to all but those whose heads are firmly buried in the sand.
One commenter, PHP87, had this to say about the accuracy of the polling:
According to Gallup, the makeup of Registered Voters looks like this: 37% Dems 34% Indys 28% GOP So Dems have a 9% advantage over Republicans. But the LA Times and Newsweek, which both have Obama ahead by 12-15%, are over sampling Dems and under sampling Republicans. LA TImes: 39% Dems 27% Indys 22% GOP Newsweek: 38% Dems 35% Indys 23% GOP Any wonder they're coming up with double-digit leads of Obama? Because their polls have a built-in, near double-digit bias for Obama. Take out the bias, and Obama has a 3-4 pt. lead, which is in line with legit polls like Gallup and Rasmussen.
Of course, none of this really matters, since the Electoral College is what determines the winner. You have to go state-by-state and add up the electoral votes.
Here's a state map with the "safe" states already filled in (My vote in California won't count). You can play with possible results and see who wins. I tried it by setting the swing states to the party that won in 2004, with Wisconsin (an apparent tie) thrown to the Democrats, and McCain pulls off a big win.