Monster Airbus

When I first read about the unveiling of the new Airbus A380 monster jet, my first thought was, "What a stupid idea."

I used to work as a computer programmer for Pacific Southwest Airlines (PSA), from late 1985 to April of 1988, when USAir bought us out. About every quarter they published a magazine for the employees, with stories about where PSA was going and usually a story about some part of the company history.

In one issue, the history article was about the time PSA decided to improve the flights on their main route, LA to San Francisco, by using jumbo jets. More seats = more passengers = more profit. So they bought some Lockheed L-1011's and put them into service. Unfortunately, it took 90 minutes to get all the passengers on the plane--for a 45 minute flight--and then they had to get everyone off the plane at the destination. Within a matter of only a few weeks, PSA admitted their mistake, sold off the L-1011's and never used jumbo jets again.

This is what that Airbus A380 reminds me of. How big can their market be? They're going to have to ignore all the airlines with shorter routes, which would limit the A380's potential buyers.

Today, Hugh Hewitt linked to a new blog by Boeing VP of Marketing, Randy Baseler, who discussed the unveiling of the A380 in his January 18,2005 post. First, he congratulated Airbus for their achievement. Then he said, "Along with the A380 being an engineering marvel it also represents a very large misjudgment about how most passengers want to travel and how most airlines operate." He is a master of diplomacy, which is one reason he is a VP and I'm not. Mr. Baseler cites recent trends in jumbo jet use:

Consider that Airbus says London's Heathrow will use the most A380s during
the next two decades. Yet, the 747's share of departures at Heathrow hasn't
changed during the past twenty years. Airbus lists Tokyo's two airports and Hong
Kong's as major A380 hubs. But at those three airports, the 747 as a percentage
of departures is about half of what it was in the 1990s. If large airplanes
solve congestion, the 747 departures would have been going up.

From my own experience, the bottleneck of the air travel process is at the gate. It's going to take more ingenuity to get the A380 loaded than PSA was able to muster, or these planes are going to have to be fabulous to make them worth the wait.

It's possible these new jets will catch on, but I think I share Randy Baseler's doubtful assessment of their future. What a stupid idea.