Friday, February 17, 2006

France and Iran and Risk

When France recognizes a problem, that's when you know something is really wrong. Yesterday's New York Times reported that France has finally opened its eyes.

France plainly accused Iran today of pursuing a nuclear program that can only be intended for military purposes, just two days after Iran said it had resumed enrichment for civilian purposes.

The declaration by Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy raised the pressure on Iran, ahead of talks next week in Brussels and Moscow with European Union and Russian officials, as Iran tries to avert a showdown at the Security Council in March.

"Today, it's simple; no civilian nuclear program can explain the Iranian nuclear program. So, it's an Iranian clandestine military nuclear program," Mr. Douste-Blazy said on a morning news show on France 2 television.

It's about time!

If France keeps up the pressure on Iran and supports--or even initiates--action of some sort against Iran, then I might even start to like them again and buy their Petit Ecolier cookies again.

But this isn't about cookies, or about France, or even about Iran. It's about assessing risk. We need to determine where the greatest risk to our country is coming from and focus our highest attention there. From the perspective of a worker bee in a cubicle in an office building, here are the top threats to our nation's security (in descending order):

From within our country. The radical imams who are indoctrinating their people toward terror, including setting up training camps, are the biggest threat because their weapons and emissaries are geographically nearby. It doesn't take a lot of coordinating, à la 9/11, to start causing a lot of damage and carnage.

From Iraq. If we don't finish the job, get the Iraqi army trained and up to speed, and get that country stable, then Iraq could deteriorate into a terrorist hotbed that would make Afghanistan under the Taliban look like nursery school. This is also related to the first risk, because the threat to our finishing the job in Iraq is from within our country--from the anti-war, anti-Bush crowd.

From Iran. Even France is getting it about Iran. The Iranian president is a genocidal lunatic, and besides Israel, it's our genes he wants to destroy. And Iran is busy working on the weapons that would give him that ability.

From Syria. It's getting pretty clear that Syria is sitting on Saddam's weapons of mass destruction. In the recent past, they had a puppet regime in Lebanon, and they appear to keep stirring up anti-West hatred.

Other threats. After the above, assessing the next greatest threat gets a little harder. Here are some countries that pose real or potential threats and deserve watching, in no particular order: China. Russian Federation. North Korea. Saudi Arabia. Pakistan.

Non-threats. Israel is not a threat, despite the way much of the media, the UN, many mainline denominations, and the Left portray them. The Palestinians are not a direct threat to the US either--they're a threat to Israel.

If the UN starts getting in the way of addressing and neutralizing the real threats to our national safety, then we need to abandon them (we need to do that anyway, but it becomes more pressing if they allow Iran to go nuclear because of bureaucratic foot-dragging). Our national security needs to be our top priority. Let's not get bogged down by the trivial to the point that we ignore the real risks.

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