Politico reported today that Fred Thompson will be officially announcing his candidacy over the Fourth of July holiday. (The rumor I've heard around here is that he was waiting until this season of Law and Order finished airing, so there wouldn't be any "equal time" questions related to his being in the show.)
Since Thompson began hinting he might get in, polls have generally showed him tied for third with Romney. In the most recent average of national polls on RealClearPolitics.com, each had 10 percent of the vote, behind Giuliani at 26 percent and McCain at 18 percent. Since those polls were taken, Romney has shown increasing strength in early-voting states.
In the long run, after people get more chances to see all the candidates, I expect these numbers to shift.
Giuliani is a liberal who is tough on the war. He won't get the nonmination unless all the tough-on-war conservatives crash and burn their campaigns somehow.
McCain is a Kennedy-hugging menace who is sort of tough on the war, and Kennedy-hugging always manages to rub off the wrong way. Just ask Governator Schwarzenegger. McCain's candidacy already has downward momentum that's starting to pick up speed. He's toast. In fact, Dean Barnett at Hugh Hewitt's blog is taking dates in the "McCain Campaign Dead Pool." You can select the date you think McCain will throw in the towel, and you'll win a fabulous prize if you're the closest without going over.
Romney's momentum is on the upswing. He's an evolved liberal-to-conservative, and his opponents are trying to paint that as flip-flopping, but that label doesn't seem to be sticking. His evolution is the natural one that thinking people make.
Fred Thompson will have to start scrambling to catch up to Romney. So will the less well-known conservatives who are tough on the war, like Duncan Hunter.
I'm glad Thompson is in. It's going to get fun now.
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